Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Violence, a higher State of Diplomacy!!

With Civil War in the offing, Gbagbo defiantly continues to hold onto power as toothless AU pleads with him to step down.  
 
After loosing the presidential elections in Ivory Coast more than three months ago, Laurent Gbagbo is still in Power: A typical power hungry African despot who never wants to leave, he learns from the same survival school as his mentor, Robert Mugabe who has survived in office despite intense economic sanctions and political pressure from the international community.

Mr. Ouattara, by all measures, won the elections fair and square. UN-certified results alluded to that. But in a dubious constitutional move by the country’s constitutional council, more than half a million votes were unilaterally thrown out, results overturned and Gbagbo declared the winner.

This move elicited sharp criticism from the International community. The African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) rejected the decision and endorsed Mr. Ouattara as the duly elected president of Ivory Coast and demanded that Gbagbo steps down. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) threatened to send a force to oust him if he refused to Step down.

President Elect, Ouattara has received near unanimous support of the International community save for a few of Gbagbo’s kind like Museveni of Uganda and others who would rather keep mum than support him in public. Despite financial and diplomatic sanctions that have been imposed in an attempt to Starve Gbagbo out of Power, he maintains control of the state bureaucracy and its security forces which he has used to hunt down and execute Ouattara’s supporters. The UN has estimated that about 400 people have been killed in his terror campaign.

The effects of economic sanctions are beginning to be seen; the economy is slowing down and going to its knees; the once booming port is deserted, customs duties at the port are down more than 96 percent and civil servants are lining around banks for days hoping for pay. It is estimated that Mr. Gbagbo was able to pay 50 to 80 percent of the 144,000 civil servants in February enabling him to keep some cash into circulation. 

Diplomats are however warning that he may not be able to do this for long. “They found a way to put cash in some people’s hands,” a diplomat said. “You haven’t seen any protests about government workers’ not getting paid.” He continued, “It will be a shadow of the economy it was, but it doesn’t take a thriving economy to stay in power,” said the diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “He can wreck the economy and stay in power. If he makes it through the month of March, I think he could be here 20 years.” 

He is still coming up with rubber-band fixes for his battered economy, diplomatic isolation and humanitarian crisis in his country. He appears almost daily on National television blaming the United Nations, France and the United States for his countries problems. Perhaps he sought advice from his mentor Mugabe. He seems to draw inspiration from Mugabe who has survived all these tribulations and the current trend in Africa’s democracy where elections are disputed, the rule of law is disregarded and lection losers making power sharing deals.

He is a good reference for autocrats under siege who would wish to use him as a case study. The lesson is; defy openly, show interest in negotiation and lash out as you keep everyone guessing. Despite all the pressure in the face of economic challenges and diplomatic isolation, nobody seems to be able to predict how long he will last and there are good reasons for the reluctance in forecasting his fall. He is an artful dodger who has shown himself to be a brilliant tactician over the last 10 years,”

Gbagbo’s desperate Bid to hang onto power has led to unspeakable atrocities and hundreds of death. Ivory Coast is starting to look like a war zone and it now seems destined to slide into full scale chaos. Conflict between his supporters and his nemesis’ supporters has escalated in the past three weeks into heavy fighting in the city of Abidjan, the main commercial city. It now appears to be entering a new phase of open street combat between pro-Gbagbo and pro-Ouattara forces fighting over control of major streets in the city and fighting is quickly spreading to the west of the country.

In a new twist of events, Allassane Ouattara finally broke his three month silence on the gunmen fighting to defend his claim to the presidency and their identity. He said he officially recognizes the former rebels as the legitimate army."I have just made a decree for the creation of the Republican Forces of Ivory Coast (FRCI)," Ouattara said in a statement. "This new army is composed of the national army and the (former rebel) New Forces." 

This is the first time Ouattara has acknowledged command over the former rebels and the Gunmen out to oust Gbagbo. He had formerly distanced himself from them."Their mission is principally to assure the security of people and their belongings," he said. "This new army will follow a new code of conduct in the service of its citizens."

According to a western diplomat, this means the New Forces, once regarded as mere warlords, were now officially recognized by the international community as Ivory Coast's military. The New Forces, going by the name “Invisible commandos” are engaging the pro-Gbagbo’s forces in street battles in and territorial control and seem to be making headway into new neighborhoods and closing in on the presidential palace.

With the Imminent danger of the conflict escalating into a full scale war, the International community must do more and act quickly to halt this terror. Gbagbo must not be allowed to plunge the country back into civil war. Currently, there are 9,000 peacekeepers in Ivory Coast with another 2,000 authorized to move in and urgently protect civilians. There can be no more delays and more firm action is needed. ECOWAS, the AU and the UN should consider more effective ways of ending this crisis and prevent an ever impending civil war."To prevent this, ECOWAS must reclaim responsibility for political and military management of the crisis with the unequivocal support of the AU and the UN," Said Gilles Yabi, a policy research group's West Africa project director. "The most likely scenario is an armed conflict involving massive violence against civilians that could provoke unilateral military intervention by neighbors," said Yabi.

ECOWAS was quickest to respond by suspending Ivory Coast from the regional Block and threatening the use force if Gbagbo didn’t step down but the threats went as quickly as they came. It now seems they have developed cold feet and may not be able to follow through on their threats and the involvement of the African Union hasn’t helped much. But the fact that the threats were delivered is a welcome break from the past and it shows that Africans are willing to stand by what is right and take charge for itself

The African Union should be decisive and support this as we are out of the era of external interventions from the UN and former colonial masters in African affairs. Ivory Coast provides an acid test for Africa and the AU to show what they can do for the African people, particularly in the face of popular revolts in Africa against tyrants in the continent.
 
"African solutions to African problems" is a phrase that has long been more of an aspiration than reality perpetuated by self serving leaders who do not wish to be accountable to their people and the International Community. Africa is home to plenty of sitting tyrants with no desire of external mediation when it comes to justice and rule of law. Elections have been disputed in many other countries and the AU does not seem to recognize the need for an urgent mechanism to ensure elections are free and fair and do not lead into conflict. The recent trend of power sharing and Unity Governments whenever elections are disputed has set a bad precedent in Africa and should never be encouraged to continue.

Despite earlier stances by the AU that there shall be no power sharing in Ivory Coast, its democratically elected leader extended an olive branch to the Incumbent, offering him a unity government perhaps frustrated by the lack of decisive action by the regional and international community. He described the offer as “the last chance for a peaceful and honorable resolution” to the crisis, Ouattara said.

In light of this, the African Union has said that this is not a power-sharing deal between Mr. Gbagbo and Mr. Ouattara. Mr. Ouattara is the president and has agreed to include members of Mr. Gbagbo's party in his cabinet. Youssoufou Bamba, the Ivory Coast ambassador to the United Nations, added that Mr. Gbagbo's followers could be absorbed into a "wider composite cabinet". Mr. Gbagbo's camp however said the incumbent's victory was "non-negotiable". The country remains in a catch 22 situation.

“The only way forward to a peaceful Cote d’Ivoire lies in respecting the will of Ivorians as expressed in the outcome of the November elections which were certified as free and fair by the United Nations and other independent organizations,” said Raila Odinga, the African Union’s envoy in the conflict. 

The responsibility to protect principle, adopted by the UN general assembly in 2005 requires that the International community must intervene to protect and promote the rights of citizens in countries where the state is unwilling to do so. The Bombardment of Libya by foreign forces is a reminder to the AU that it cannot sit and watch as its people suffers under despots who are out to exploit and rule with clenched fists.

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