There is no doubt that the geographical landscape in East Africa is set to change with the birth of a new nation. The youngest nation in Africa and the 193rd world state in the community of Nations. New Sudan, Equatoria, Juwama or the Nile Republic are the suggested names of the new state of Southern Sudan. The ‘lost boys’ as the southerners are commonly referred in the Diaspora, have found a home and all they hope for now is a life of dignity, honor and self worth.
Diplomats are beavering away in their bid to establish friendly relations and strategically position their countries to reap maximum benefits from the new opportunities presented by the Aladdin’s cave that is South Sudan. The International community is optimistic that secession will finally end the long running war that has gripped the two sides for decades now and the new state can define its development agenda and pursue the dreams and aspirations of its people.
Southern Sudan seems to have evaded the tumult that comes with secession perhaps because it has had some sort of partial independence for the last six years and most states have been preparing for the eventual separation of the South from the North. Most countries have already established diplomatic ties and have sent representatives and opened embassies in Juba.
Professor Macharia Munene, a Historian and political commenter, explains “Most if not all countries are resigned to the fact that South Sudan will secede and become an Independent nation. He asserts, “Countries have no option but to recognize the independence of South Sudan and establish diplomatic ties with the new state”.
Southern Sudan is linked more to the southern part of Africa as opposed to the North, both geographically and culturally and the East Africa community States are keen to welcome the new state to the regional grouping. Ambassador Philip Mwanzia, a career diplomat and the current Director of Kenya’s Foreign Service Institute avers, “Every country must respect the choice of the people of south Sudan and when they secede, it is almost certain that it will be a new member of the Eat African Community as it perfectly meets the criteria”. He added, “Kenya will however remain neutral as it has been in the past and maintain friendly relations with both the north and the south and all states should do the same”
“This is not the time to take sides; instead, countries should now focus on supporting the two states to ensure that the weighty post post-referendum issues are dealt with amicably”. These issues include the unresolved Abyei referendum, the demarcation of the border between the North and the South, consultations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states as well as a consensus on post-referendum agreements.
Kenya’s stakes are particularly high as it is perceived by both the North and the south as a neutral arbiter and therefore it cannot be seen to be taking any positions when it comes to the Sudan issue. Its vice-president, Kalonzo Musyoka, former President, Daniel Arap Moi and Lt. Gen. Rtd.Lazarus Sumbeiyo are basking in the fruits of their efforts to end the Sudan crisis and together with the government of Kenya, will want to see a peaceful and lasting solution to the decade’s long crisis.
A flare-up in Sudan will massively hit the economies of the entire East African Region especially Kenya who’s vision 2030 economic blueprint hinges on a peaceful and prosperous Sudan. Kenya is positioning itself as a logistics hub and transport channel for the landlocked South Sudan while Uganda is currently the biggest trading partner of South Sudan. As a result, the two countries together with other East African Nations will devotedly monitor developments in the Sudan as a peaceful resolution to the outstanding issues will translate into prosperity for the entire East African region.
Western Nations are however blowing hot and cold when it comes to the Sudan issue and majority are pessimistic about the outcome of the referendum. The U.S has said it will welcome the new Sudan nation in the south and is ready to recognize it and appoint an ambassador but officials are less confident about the six-month implementation phase after the referendum. U.S secretary of state, Hillary Clinton has described the situation as “a ticking time-bomb” fearing renewed conflict if the post-referendum negotiations fail.
The west seems not to have faith in the leadership of both the North and the south, mostly portraying them as careless brutes. Bashir has been indicted on genocide charges and both the U.S and the UN have imposed numerous sanctions on the North. Nevertheless, Mohammed Hamad, a political science professor in Khartoum differs “Al –Bashir will be reluctant to go to war now because others will use it as an excuse, and Israel and the U.S will try to depose the regime in the North”.
Radicals in the Islamic world are already analyzing the process as efforts of the United States and other western countries to make the Islamic world smaller; claiming that the separation of south Sudan from northern Sudan will negatively affect the geopolitics of the Islamic world and will create a new Israel in the heart of Sudan. Israel supported the south after Sudan backed Egypt following its defeat in the six day war of 1967. That support helped build a considerable force in the south to sustain a rebellion that has culminated in the referendum.
President Al- Bashir is also facing a lot of pressure from Nationalists in the North who are also trying to oust him for cooperating with the West and agreeing to the referendum deal. ‘If South Sudan secedes, we will change the constitution and at that time, there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity’ President Omar Hassan al- Bashir told supporters at a rally in the city of Gerdaref “Sharia and Islam will be the main source for the constitution. Islam is the official religion and Arabic the official language”. Perhaps these statements were meant to appease those who view the loss of the South as a weakness in Islam or his leadership.
Diplomats will be more concerned about developments in the North and there are fears that it could become more radicalized. President Al-Bashir continues to receive hefty diplomatic and financial support from the Arab world and China and it will be interesting to see how the U.S makes it moves after the referendum.
Western analysts have vividly described south Sudan’s referendum process as an acid test for U.S diplomacy in the region, saying it could present the U.S president, Barrack Obama with his “Rwanda moment” if violence breaks out in the Sudan. Despite Obama stressing his personal interests in the Sudan, various officials advocate different strategies presenting no clear policy on the Sudan.
Many observers in the U,S are quick to point that Obama will need to escalate his newly found interest in the region and warn that if his attention wanders, southern joy could quickly turn into catastrophe and bloodshed. Washington has increasingly been involved in Sudan recently; particularly by offering incentives to the North and promising the normalization of ties if it facilitates a peaceful referendum and cooperates in the post-referendum negotiations. Richard Williamson, a former envoy to Sudan says “they need to have real diplomacy as incentives alone are not real diplomacy” He adds “they need to have a much more traditional and realistic negotiating posture in the future.
China; known for its non-interference policy on internal matters of other states is focusing purely on a partnership that would allow them to do business and invest in both the North and the South. It is currently the leading country in oil business mostly produced in South Sudan. The Chinese opened their consulate in Juba and have already initiated dialogue with the South on issues of future economic relations with the new state of South Sudan.
South Sudan has received a lot of regional and International goodwill and it is now upon its leadership and people to focus on the development of a new and prosperous Nation for a people who had long reached the end of their tether. It will need a lot of help from its neighbors and development partners to build its economy as well as the promotion of trade and investments with other nations. While most donors friends and donors will focus on aid and peace in the young nation to preventing it from becoming a failed state, the international community must also ensure that the North does not degenerate and into a radical extremist state.
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