A politically charged year was expected of 2010 and it lived to its billing. It has indeed been an eventful year full of glamour, hope and some instances of despair as EAC sought to consolidate itself. Significantly as well were milestone achievements regarding the union that juxtaposed socio-political agendas to set forth the integration calendar; Precisely the EAC common market and Customs Union came to the fore with slow but firm gains from individual nations; a remarkable commitment from all five partner states.
The region has seen tremendous improvements in the areas of governance, economic progress and food security leaving the western media without anything much to report. Nevertheless, that is not to say that all is well in the region, this progress is not permanent and serious challenges are posed by the lack of strong institutions to guard and maintain the gains made. The IGAD Executive secretary, Eng. Mahboub M. Maalim avers that the main agenda in 2011 for the region will be regional integration, institutional strengthening and implementation of the regional peace and security strategy.
Politically, elections have not disappointed with their trivia. Each country has had a fair share, albeit differently with distinct intrigues. Kenya reaffirmed its position among the most democratic states in the region by holding a peaceful referendum to enact a new constitutional dispensation as part of its agenda four reform agenda. The document has been referred as progressive ‘not-so-East African’, inclines sound structures to not only tackle current challenges but also ensure the nation is well placed to achieve vision 2030.
Tanzania saw the re-election of President Jakaya Kikwete to serve a second and final term in office in the fiercest elections in recent times with the incumbent and his Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party seeing diminished popularity. With only 60% approval, CCM has a huge task to reaffirm itself as the peoples’ party. Now serving his second and last term, Kikwete has a daunting task of midwifing the current and future of the union. Critical to the union and recognition of its respect to race, was the election of the first albino.
The island of Zanzibar was not left out. First was the approval of a constitution through a referendum that enshrined a power sharing arrangement between the winner and the first runner up: This was seen as a compromise for reducing the tensions emanating from winner takes all elections. Secondly, there was an election in which the incumbent president was leaving office. The elections gave him an opportunity to register his legacy by ensuring his party wins the elections and an opportunity for the opposition to test its political clout.
Rwanda’s Paul Kagame was re-elected almost unopposed with 93% of the vote making him the most ‘popular’ commonwealth leader in the region. Opposition candidates cried foul as many were unable to challenge him. His main challenger, Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza was unable to contest due to a pending court case and house arrest. Those who did produced a paltry performance.
Rivaling Paul Kagame in a rather unorthodox means was Burundi’s president Pierre Nkunzinza being re-elected in a one candidate race which was heavily disputed. The opposition, who boycotted the polls in protest of municipal elections held earlier, has often said it will not recognize his leadership dealing a blow to Burundi’s democratic progress. It is feared that the growing political dissent and increased oppression will soon trigger a crisis in that country.
Sudan is grappling with the challenges of pre –and post referendum early next year and both regional and international community are working overtime to ensure the referendum takes place in time. This is the last and most significant part of fulfilling the CPA agreement signed in 2005. A peaceful outcome and one that is acceptable by Juba and Khartoum is largely anticipated to translate to lasting peace in the region.
In Uganda, politicians are already traversing the country selling their political agenda as February 2011 general elections near. President Museveni will be seeking a fourth term in an election that has invited eight other competitors. Seasonal candidates like Kiza Besigye are expected to hand him the greatest challenge but their division is sure to ensure he wins. Perennial issues of corruption, poverty and inequality are dominating the campaigns and likely to tilt the result.
President Kibaki has already left a legacy as the man who delivered the Kenya people to the Promised Land but his main task in the next few months will be to ensure that the constitution is implemented fully and observers will be keen to watch these developments as the year 2012 is another election year. There’s need to have the new institutions running to safeguard the “new Kenya” from succession games involving politicians engaging in ethnic politics.
Kikwete has asked Tanzanians not to create more room for divisions emphasizing that Tanzania should cherish and maintain that peace that it is known for. He dismissed claims of vote rigging by the opposition and pledged election reforms to make future elections more credible.
Kagame has been lauded as a transformative leader in the region entrenching stability and economic progress in Rwanda but in the absence of broad political participation and inclusion, it will be hard to sustain the gains made. There’s going to be increased opposition voices in Rwanda as an extension of the momentum gained during the electioneering period and how it will be fascinating to see how he deals with opposition.
In Sudan, It is widely expected that the southerners will opt to secede and no tangible agreement has yet been reached by the CPA partners on the nature of relationships between the North and the South in case of secession vote. Contentious issues include issues such as citizenship, residency of southerners in the north, boundary demarcation, voting eligibility among others. Observers are keen to observe how it emerges from this turmoil and if Southern Sudan secedes, Kenya who has played a key role in the establishment of the CPA is likely to convince the new Independent African state to the join the East African Community.
Development in the region will not only be determined by political stability but also economic policies amongst other factors. Infrastructure development with a niche in sound institutions will guarantee the gains made to be sustainable. Whereas 2010 saw the increase in economic activities in the region, countries are expected to engage in discussions and how to best take advantage of the new markets and economic opportunities being offered in the process of integration. For instance, economic cooperation, especially with the customs union, will offer countries with economic diversification opportunities to guard their economies against regular shocks that might slow down development.
The E.A.C is currently working on cooperating in infrastructure development especially in the road network linking the region. Common trade policies are also in the agenda. Heterogeneity of countries in the region is a limiting factor that retards growth in the region and stakeholders will be focusing on reviewing and consolidating economic policies. Technological transfer and the arrival of the undersea high speed data cables in East Africa will improve information technology and communications industry in the region
Lying within the tropics, the region relies heavily on climate sensitive matters such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry and other natural resources for development. The frequency of effects of climate change such as floods and droughts are set to pose a major threat to development. The challenge posed by food security is already being a potential source of conflict in the region with the dispute over the use of the Nile River being contentious among countries that share the water resource. Experts are warning that if the Nile water usage dispute is not resolves amicably, there is a high possibility of armed conflict in the near future.
It is in times of challenge that a true leader is best tested. Not all has been smooth in the region but with considerable gains in all major sectors of the economy, human capital remains the best safeguard for the region. Peer influence from neighboring countries should offer the all important impetus to making the integration process inclusive. For example, Rwanda was ranked 63rd in the world, the best in the region in doing business. It is progressive to learn to gain its best practices to steer other economies.
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