Don’t hate the player; hate the game of ethnic politics in Kenya.

The use and abuse of ethnicity by politicians in Kenya is as old as Kenya itself and old habits die hard. In the pre-colonial times, ethnic groups co-existed peacefully and competition for resources was limited and healthy apart from a few cases of conflict that were resolved amicably. Whereas the origins of contemporary Kenyan ethnic identities lie in the colonial state, it is not solely responsible for the current state of events.

After Independence, our leaders continued to abuse ethnicity to maintain political power and further their selfish interests. They established a pattern of power distribution in the post-colonial state based on ethnicity that determined access to social and material resources. The uneven distribution of power meant inequitable distribution of resources and because the state controlled the production and distribution of resources, there emerged competition for these resources at state level making the state the focus of ethnic politics and conflicts.

This state of events has increasingly led to ethnic mobilizations and manipulation of ethnic and cultural identities of groups. How to take advantage of the national ‘cake’ is one of the permanent major features of politicized ethnicity in our country. The various ethnic groups perceive the ‘national cake’ as essentially limited and the main goal of inter-ethnic political struggle  at the level of central government is to draw away resources to benefit the ethnic group or region represented at the core of power in government.

The pattern we see today is that; the first president came from a tribe which benefited most materially. Then the next president came from a different tribe and now it became their time ‘to eat’. Now we have a third president and the trend has continued but this time to a lesser degree. If this trend continues, by the time the presidency moves round if ever it will; some tribes will have been extremely marginalized. The governing mood in the current setting appears to be telling outsiders from the governing tribes to wait for their turn to come.

Since independence, our political parties have been in reality, coalitions of ethnic based factions. Because of the belief that the ethnic group from which the president comes is likely to benefit more by being given more access to employment and other resources. As a result, each ethnic group tries to ally itself with a presidential candidate who is likely to promote its interests.

The widespread expectation for people in positions of power to favor members of their ethnic groups has a significant implication in the way politics is conducted in our country. First, it makes voters inclined to support politicians from their own ethnic groups over others and because politicians know that voters will do this, it creates incentives for politicians to express their electoral appeals and frame their coalition building strategies in ethnic terms. It also informs politicians about how voters are likely to cast their votes and therefore which kinds of ethnic coalitions would be most useful to mobilize. For voters, ethnicity provides insights into how candidates will distribute patronage if they are elected. It helps them determine the advantage the will have if one candidate wins the election over another. Therefore, both politicians and voters find ethnicity to be a powerful tool.

The new constitution and the new institutions in place give us an opportunity to play a different set of card game that is fair and just to all. Perhaps its full implementation and the increased political activity and awareness by the populace will enable it transform  us to a free and fair country where ethnicity will not form a basis for employment and election into national offices but rather where merit will be promoted and politics will be used to harness the strength in Kenya’s diversity.  It is even encouraging to see that most Kenyans are beginning to push for a new morality in public life as enshrined in the new law and demanding that the new generation of politicians be guided by ethics rather than ethnicity.

The educated youth in Kenya, most of whom do not owe their ethnic groups for their professional and economic success, should not sit and watch as tribalists lead them to misery but stand up to their leadership potential and tackle the backwardness of ethnic politics aware that they have only lent their future to political leaders in trust; a trust they can recall whenever necessary. The challenge is to accept the inevitability, and indeed the legitimacy of different ethnic identities and find ways to manage their coexistence.

REDD AGENDA: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Our environment today is our most valued resource and the sooner we realize that, the better for us. The backroom boys have delivered their verdict “act now or perish”. The effects of global warming and climate change are evident and calls for urgent action is getting louder by the day. The challenge is to fashion a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability.

“Let every individual and institution now think and act as a responsible trustee of Earth, seeking choices in ecology, economics and ethics that will provide a sustainable future, eliminate pollution, poverty and violence, awaken the wonder of life and foster peaceful progress in the human adventure.". Urges, John McConnell, founder of International Earth day,

Africa has been severely affected by the effects of climate change despite contributing very little to global warming. Nevertheless, it has a responsibility to play in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions as well as adapt to climate change. It has been predicted that the region will continue to experience more dramatic droughts and floods, and a totally different weather pattern.

For the region to address the challenges of adaptation and mitigation, it needs substantial financial resources, information systems, technical capacity and the right policies and institutions. The answer may lie in REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation).

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), is a mechanism to create an incentive for developing countries to protect, better manage and wisely use their forest resources, thus contributing to the global fight against climate change and reap financial rewards as well. 

The basic idea of REDD was to create a system of positive initiatives to persuade developing countries to reduce their deforestation rates. It was also seen as a way of bringing developing nations to the climate change table by some industrialized nations.

It is being viewed as a compromise between the already developed countries responsible for climate change and developing nations seeking to develop in the same path thus a win –win option with co-benefits. It was given global status after its inclusion in the Bali Map at COP 13 the UNFCCC held in Indonesia in 2007.

The UN-REDD Programme, was then launched in September 2008, in collaboration with the world bank, to help developing countries strengthen their capacity to take advantage of the immense opportunities offered by REDD to transform them to green and sustainable economies.

REDD+ is a term used to refer to enhanced efforts that go beyond reducing deforestation and forest degradation to include the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. It strives to make forests more valuable standing than cut down, by creating a financial value for the carbon stored in standing trees. 

REDD+ means that farmers in developing countries can now be compensated for the carbon offsets they provide. It is widely seen as an attractive way to reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously conserving forests and sustaining rural livelihoods.

REDD has been received with great enthusiasm in the region not surprisingly, with the prospects of reaping the tens of billions of dollars that researchers have estimated REDD could generate annually. It is generating a lot of interest within the East African region with debates on how the region could increasingly get involved in REDD+ mitigation activities.

Planning has included the preparation of Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) that outlines the processes by which governments will develop national strategies to achieve REDD objectives and participation in the evolving international mechanism for reducing emissions.

Even though the REDD+ strategy is in place, the details of the mechanism are still under development and as a result, it remains unclear exactly how emission reduction will be rewarded in the future. This calls for forward thinking and flexibility in planning and strategizing to take into account the evolving nature of REDD+ mechanism. Expectations of REDD+ mechanisms have to be carefully managed as well. 

Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are starting to pilot REDD+ projects and currently in the process of developing national REDD+ plans. The process of REDD+ implementation has started through national planning processes and the development of pilot projects, giving some sense of what REDD+ might look like in practice.

Kenya was one of 14 countries to receive funds in the first round of the World Bank's Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, a scheme to kick-start REDD projects in developing nations. There is particular interest in the REDD+ incentive system as payments can be linked to performance. In addition, REDD+ may be more cost-effective than other emission-reduction policies.

The East African countries have started to implement legal, institutional and policy reforms to fast track the development of REDD and ensure they reap maximum benefits from it. However, it is unclear how the benefits arising from REDD should be shared. Of main concern are the rights of indigenous communities and land rights.

Land rights and tenure pose the major challenge being faced by countries in the region. Indigenous peoples and forest communities face the risk of evictions from forests as witnessed in some countries and those without tenure may not be able to claim compensation under REDD.

The complex yet lucrative market based approaches to REDD discourages community participation and encourages fraud and corruption. Criminal activities relating to carbon credit transactions by both state and individuals are likely to cause a major problem and this does not bode well for the interests of the communities whose territories are being targeted for REDD projects.

VAT avoidance, credits from fraudulent or non-existent projects, double counting, and the resale of retired credits, have all been happening and therefore the emissions trading system can easily be manipulated and abused if proper checks and balances are not put in place. Unfortunately, there aren’t any globally agreed guidelines and safeguards in place either.

REDD provides an enabling environment for developing countries to better cope with the impacts of climate change: Populations are better placed to adopt to the impacts of climate change such as prolonged droughts, flooding and changes in crop yields due to rising temperatures. It is an important factor in enabling climate change adaptation, helping to protect biodiversity and reducing erosion, whilst building resilience of local livelihoods and resources.

There are many unanswered questions concerning REDD, yet players are determined to get a mechanism for REDD established in some form or another as soon as possible. It is now up to the relevant authorities to take up the REDD agenda, facilitate its implementation, ensure the costs and benefits are shared equitably and most importantly, respect the rights of forest and indigenous communities.

REDD project brings substantial benefits to local communities in education, job creation, environmental protection and direct financial rewards, while protecting precious biodiversity at the same time, and proves that well designed, well managed REDD projects can succeed in Africa.

EAST AFRICA RISING; WRITING’S ON THE WALL

A politically charged year was expected of 2010 and it lived to its billing. It has indeed been an eventful year full of glamour, hope and some instances of despair as EAC sought to consolidate itself. Significantly as well were milestone achievements regarding the union that juxtaposed socio-political agendas to set forth the integration calendar; Precisely the EAC common market and Customs Union came to the fore with slow but firm gains from individual nations; a remarkable commitment from all five partner states.

The region has seen tremendous improvements in the areas of governance, economic progress and food security leaving the western media without anything much to report. Nevertheless, that is not to say that all is well in the region, this progress is not permanent and serious challenges are posed by the lack of strong institutions to guard and maintain the gains made. The IGAD Executive secretary, Eng. Mahboub M. Maalim avers that the main agenda in 2011 for the region will be regional integration, institutional strengthening and implementation of the regional peace and security strategy.

Politically, elections have not disappointed with their trivia. Each country has had a fair share, albeit differently with distinct intrigues. Kenya reaffirmed its position among the most democratic states in the region by holding a peaceful referendum to enact a new constitutional dispensation as part of its agenda four reform agenda. The document has been referred as progressive ‘not-so-East African’, inclines sound structures to not only tackle current challenges but also ensure the nation is well placed to achieve vision 2030.

Tanzania saw the re-election of President Jakaya Kikwete to serve a second and final term in office in the fiercest elections in recent times with the incumbent and his Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party seeing diminished popularity. With only 60% approval, CCM has a huge task to reaffirm itself as the peoples’ party. Now serving his second and last term, Kikwete has a daunting task of midwifing the current and future of the union. Critical to the union and recognition of its respect to race, was the election of the first albino.

The island of Zanzibar was not left out. First was the approval of a constitution through a referendum that enshrined a power sharing arrangement between the winner and the first runner up: This was seen as a compromise for reducing the tensions emanating from winner takes all elections. Secondly, there was an election in which the incumbent president was leaving office. The elections gave him an opportunity to register his legacy by ensuring his party wins the elections and an opportunity for the opposition to test its political clout.

Rwanda’s Paul Kagame was re-elected almost unopposed with 93% of the vote making him the most ‘popular’ commonwealth leader in the region. Opposition candidates cried foul as many were unable to challenge him. His main challenger, Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza was unable to contest due to a pending court case and house arrest. Those who did produced a paltry performance.

Rivaling Paul Kagame in a rather unorthodox means was Burundi’s president Pierre Nkunzinza being re-elected in a one candidate race which was heavily disputed. The opposition, who boycotted the polls in protest of municipal elections held earlier, has often said it will not recognize his leadership dealing a blow to Burundi’s democratic progress. It is feared that the growing political dissent and increased oppression will soon trigger a crisis in that country.

Sudan is grappling with the challenges of pre –and post referendum early next year and both regional and international community are working overtime to ensure the referendum takes place in time. This is the last and most significant part of fulfilling the CPA agreement signed in 2005. A peaceful outcome and one that is acceptable by Juba and Khartoum is largely anticipated to translate to lasting peace in the region.

In Uganda, politicians are already traversing the country selling their political agenda as February 2011 general elections near. President Museveni will be seeking a fourth term in an election that has invited eight other competitors. Seasonal candidates like Kiza Besigye are expected to hand him the greatest challenge but their division is sure to ensure he wins. Perennial issues of corruption, poverty and inequality are dominating the campaigns and likely to tilt the result.

President Kibaki has already left a legacy as the man who delivered the Kenya people to the Promised Land but his main task in the next few months will be to ensure that the constitution is implemented fully and observers will be keen to watch these developments as the year 2012 is another election year. There’s need to have the new institutions running to safeguard the “new Kenya” from succession games involving politicians engaging in ethnic politics.

Kikwete has asked Tanzanians not to create more room for divisions emphasizing that Tanzania should cherish and maintain that peace that it is known for. He dismissed claims of vote rigging by the opposition and pledged election reforms to make future elections more credible.

Kagame has been lauded as a transformative leader in the region entrenching stability and economic progress in Rwanda but in the absence of broad political participation and inclusion, it will be hard to sustain the gains made. There’s going to be increased opposition voices in Rwanda as an extension of the momentum gained during the electioneering period and how it will be fascinating to see how he deals with opposition.

In Sudan, It is widely expected that the southerners will opt to secede and no tangible agreement has yet been reached by the CPA partners on the nature of relationships between the North and the South in case of secession vote. Contentious issues include issues such as citizenship, residency of southerners in the north, boundary demarcation, voting eligibility among others. Observers are keen to observe how it emerges from this turmoil and if Southern Sudan secedes, Kenya who has played a key role in the establishment of the CPA is likely to convince the new Independent African state to the join the East African Community.

Development in the region will not only be determined by political stability but also economic policies amongst other factors. Infrastructure development with a niche in sound institutions will guarantee the gains made to be sustainable. Whereas 2010 saw the increase in economic activities in the region, countries are expected to engage in discussions and how to best take advantage of the new markets and economic opportunities being offered in the process of integration. For instance, economic cooperation, especially with the customs union, will offer countries with economic diversification opportunities to guard their economies against regular shocks that might slow down development.

The E.A.C is currently working on cooperating in infrastructure development especially in the road network linking the region. Common trade policies are also in the agenda. Heterogeneity of countries in the region is a limiting factor that retards growth in the region and stakeholders will be focusing on reviewing and consolidating economic policies. Technological transfer and the arrival of the undersea high speed data cables in East Africa will improve information technology and communications industry in the region

Lying within the tropics, the region relies heavily on climate sensitive matters such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry and other natural resources for development. The frequency of effects of climate change such as floods and droughts are set to pose a major threat to development. The challenge posed by food security is already being a potential source of conflict in the region with the dispute over the use of the Nile River being contentious among countries that share the water resource. Experts are warning that if the Nile water usage dispute is not resolves amicably, there is a high possibility of armed conflict in the near future.

It is in times of challenge that a true leader is best tested. Not all has been smooth in the region but with considerable gains in all major sectors of the economy, human capital remains the best safeguard for the region. Peer influence from neighboring countries should offer the all important impetus to making the integration process inclusive. For example, Rwanda was ranked 63^rd in the world, the best in the region in doing business. It is progressive to learn to gain its best practices to steer other economies.

Diplomacy in South Sudan; “If you can't go around it, over it, or through it, you had better negotiate with it”

There is no doubt that the geographical landscape in East Africa is set to change with the birth of a new nation. The youngest nation in Africa and the 193^rd world state in the community of Nations. New Sudan, Equatoria, Juwama or the Nile Republic are the suggested names of the new state of Southern Sudan. The ‘lost boys’ as the southerners are commonly referred in the Diaspora, have found a home and all they hope for now is a life of dignity, honor and self worth.

Diplomats are beavering away in their bid to establish friendly relations and strategically position their countries to reap maximum benefits from the new opportunities presented by the Aladdin’s cave that is South Sudan. The International community is optimistic that secession will finally end the long running war that has gripped the two sides for decades now and the new state can define its development agenda and pursue the dreams and aspirations of its people.

Southern Sudan seems to have evaded the tumult that comes with secession perhaps because it has had some sort of partial independence for the last six years and most states have been preparing for the eventual separation of the South from the North. Most countries have already established diplomatic ties and have sent representatives and opened embassies in Juba.

Professor Macharia Munene, a Historian and political commenter, explains “Most if not all countries are resigned to the fact that South Sudan will secede and become an Independent nation. He asserts, “Countries have no option but to recognize the independence of South Sudan and establish diplomatic ties with the new state”.

Southern Sudan is linked more to the southern part of Africa as opposed to the North, both geographically and culturally and the East Africa community States are keen to welcome the new state to the regional grouping. Ambassador Philip Mwanzia, a career diplomat and the current Director of Kenya’s Foreign Service Institute avers, “Every country must respect the choice of the people of south Sudan and when they secede, it is almost certain that it will be a new member of the Eat African Community as it perfectly meets the criteria”. He added, “Kenya will however remain neutral as it has been in the past and maintain friendly relations with both the north and the south and all states should do the same”

“This is not the time to take sides; instead, countries should now focus on supporting the two states to ensure that the weighty post post-referendum issues are dealt with amicably”. These issues include the unresolved Abyei referendum, the demarcation of the border between the North and the South, consultations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states as well as a consensus on post-referendum agreements.

Kenya’s stakes are particularly high as it is perceived by both the North and the south as a neutral arbiter and therefore it cannot be seen to be taking any positions when it comes to the Sudan issue. Its vice-president, Kalonzo Musyoka, former President, Daniel Arap Moi and Lt. Gen. Rtd.Lazarus Sumbeiyo are basking in the fruits of their efforts to end the Sudan crisis and together with the government of Kenya, will want to see a peaceful and lasting solution to the decade’s long crisis.

A flare-up in Sudan will massively hit the economies of the entire East African Region especially Kenya who’s vision 2030 economic blueprint hinges on a peaceful and prosperous Sudan. Kenya is positioning itself as a logistics hub and transport channel for the landlocked South Sudan while Uganda is currently the biggest trading partner of South Sudan. As a result, the two countries together with other East African Nations will devotedly monitor developments in the Sudan as a peaceful resolution to the outstanding issues will translate into prosperity for the entire East African region.

Western Nations are however blowing hot and cold when it comes to the Sudan issue and majority are pessimistic about the outcome of the referendum. The U.S has said it will welcome the new Sudan nation in the south and is ready to recognize it and appoint an ambassador but officials are less confident about the six-month implementation phase after the referendum. U.S secretary of state, Hillary Clinton has described the situation as “a ticking time-bomb” fearing renewed conflict if the post-referendum negotiations fail.

The west seems not to have faith in the leadership of both the North and the south, mostly portraying them as careless brutes. Bashir has been indicted on genocide charges and both the U.S and the UN have imposed numerous sanctions on the North. Nevertheless, Mohammed Hamad, a political science professor in Khartoum differs “Al –Bashir will be reluctant to go to war now because others will use it as an excuse, and Israel and the U.S will try to depose the regime in the North”.

Radicals in the Islamic world are already analyzing the process as efforts of the United States and other western countries to make the Islamic world smaller; claiming that the separation of south Sudan from northern Sudan will negatively affect the geopolitics of the Islamic world and will create a new Israel in the heart of Sudan. Israel supported the south after Sudan backed Egypt following its defeat in the six day war of 1967. That support helped build a considerable force in the south to sustain a rebellion that has culminated in the referendum.

President Al- Bashir is also facing a lot of pressure from Nationalists in the North who are also trying to oust him for cooperating with the West and agreeing to the referendum deal. ‘If South Sudan secedes, we will change the constitution and at that time, there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity’ President Omar Hassan al- Bashir told supporters at a rally in the city of Gerdaref “Sharia and Islam will be the main source for the constitution. Islam is the official religion and Arabic the official language”. Perhaps these statements were meant to appease those who view the loss of the South as a weakness in Islam or his leadership.

Diplomats will be more concerned about developments in the North and there are fears that it could become more radicalized. President Al-Bashir continues to receive hefty diplomatic and financial support from the Arab world and China and it will be interesting to see how the U.S makes it moves after the referendum.

Western analysts have vividly described south Sudan’s referendum process as an acid test for U.S diplomacy in the region, saying it could present the U.S president, Barrack Obama with his “Rwanda moment” if violence breaks out in the Sudan. Despite Obama stressing his personal interests in the Sudan, various officials advocate different strategies presenting no clear policy on the Sudan.

Many observers in the U,S are quick to point that Obama will need to escalate his newly found interest in the region and warn that if his attention wanders, southern joy could quickly turn into catastrophe and bloodshed. Washington has increasingly been involved in Sudan recently; particularly by offering incentives to the North and promising the normalization of ties if it facilitates a peaceful referendum and cooperates in the post-referendum negotiations. Richard Williamson, a former envoy to Sudan says “they need to have real diplomacy as incentives alone are not real diplomacy” He adds “they need to have a much more traditional and realistic negotiating posture in the future.

China; known for its non-interference policy on internal matters of other states is focusing purely on a partnership that would allow them to do business and invest in both the North and the South. It is currently the leading country in oil business mostly produced in South Sudan. The Chinese opened their consulate in Juba and have already initiated dialogue with the South on issues of future economic relations with the new state of South Sudan.

South Sudan has received a lot of regional and International goodwill and it is now upon its leadership and people to focus on the development of a new and prosperous Nation for a people who had long reached the end of their tether. It will need a lot of help from its neighbors and development partners to build its economy as well as the promotion of trade and investments with other nations. While most donors friends and donors will focus on aid and peace in the young nation to preventing it from becoming a failed state, the international community must also ensure that the North does not degenerate and into a radical extremist state.

Violence, a higher State of Diplomacy!!

With Civil War in the offing, Gbagbo defiantly continues to hold onto power as toothless AU pleads with him to step down.  

 

After loosing the presidential elections in Ivory Coast more than three months ago, Laurent Gbagbo is still in Power: A typical power hungry African despot who never wants to leave, he learns from the same survival school as his mentor, Robert Mugabe who has survived in office despite intense economic sanctions and political pressure from the international community.

Mr. Ouattara, by all measures, won the elections fair and square. UN-certified results alluded to that. But in a dubious constitutional move by the country’s constitutional council, more than half a million votes were unilaterally thrown out, results overturned and Gbagbo declared the winner.

This move elicited sharp criticism from the International community. The African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) rejected the decision and endorsed Mr. Ouattara as the duly elected president of Ivory Coast and demanded that Gbagbo steps down. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) threatened to send a force to oust him if he refused to Step down.

President Elect, Ouattara has received near unanimous support of the International community save for a few of Gbagbo’s kind like Museveni of Uganda and others who would rather keep mum than support him in public. Despite financial and diplomatic sanctions that have been imposed in an attempt to Starve Gbagbo out of Power, he maintains control of the state bureaucracy and its security forces which he has used to hunt down and execute Ouattara’s supporters. The UN has estimated that about 400 people have been killed in his terror campaign.

The effects of economic sanctions are beginning to be seen; the economy is slowing down and going to its knees; the once booming port is deserted, customs duties at the port are down more than 96 percent and civil servants are lining around banks for days hoping for pay. It is estimated that Mr. Gbagbo was able to pay 50 to 80 percent of the 144,000 civil servants in February enabling him to keep some cash into circulation. 

Diplomats are however warning that he may not be able to do this for long. “They found a way to put cash in some people’s hands,” a diplomat said. “You haven’t seen any protests about government workers’ not getting paid.” He continued, “It will be a shadow of the economy it was, but it doesn’t take a thriving economy to stay in power,” said the diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “He can wreck the economy and stay in power. If he makes it through the month of March, I think he could be here 20 years.” 

He is still coming up with rubber-band fixes for his battered economy, diplomatic isolation and humanitarian crisis in his country. He appears almost daily on National television blaming the United Nations, France and the United States for his countries problems. Perhaps he sought advice from his mentor Mugabe. He seems to draw inspiration from Mugabe who has survived all these tribulations and the current trend in Africa’s democracy where elections are disputed, the rule of law is disregarded and lection losers making power sharing deals.

He is a good reference for autocrats under siege who would wish to use him as a case study. The lesson is; defy openly, show interest in negotiation and lash out as you keep everyone guessing. Despite all the pressure in the face of economic challenges and diplomatic isolation, nobody seems to be able to predict how long he will last and there are good reasons for the reluctance in forecasting his fall. He is an artful dodger who has shown himself to be a brilliant tactician over the last 10 years,”

Gbagbo’s desperate Bid to hang onto power has led to unspeakable atrocities and hundreds of death. Ivory Coast is starting to look like a war zone and it now seems destined to slide into full scale chaos. Conflict between his supporters and his nemesis’ supporters has escalated in the past three weeks into heavy fighting in the city of Abidjan, the main commercial city. It now appears to be entering a new phase of open street combat between pro-Gbagbo and pro-Ouattara forces fighting over control of major streets in the city and fighting is quickly spreading to the west of the country.

In a new twist of events, Allassane Ouattara finally broke his three month silence on the gunmen fighting to defend his claim to the presidency and their identity. He said he officially recognizes the former rebels as the legitimate army."I have just made a decree for the creation of the Republican Forces of Ivory Coast (FRCI)," Ouattara said in a statement. "This new army is composed of the national army and the (former rebel) New Forces." 

This is the first time Ouattara has acknowledged command over the former rebels and the Gunmen out to oust Gbagbo. He had formerly distanced himself from them."Their mission is principally to assure the security of people and their belongings," he said. "This new army will follow a new code of conduct in the service of its citizens."

According to a western diplomat, this means the New Forces, once regarded as mere warlords, were now officially recognized by the international community as Ivory Coast's military. The New Forces, going by the name “Invisible commandos” are engaging the pro-Gbagbo’s forces in street battles in and territorial control and seem to be making headway into new neighborhoods and closing in on the presidential palace.

With the Imminent danger of the conflict escalating into a full scale war, the International community must do more and act quickly to halt this terror. Gbagbo must not be allowed to plunge the country back into civil war. Currently, there are 9,000 peacekeepers in Ivory Coast with another 2,000 authorized to move in and urgently protect civilians. There can be no more delays and more firm action is needed. ECOWAS, the AU and the UN should consider more effective ways of ending this crisis and prevent an ever impending civil war."To prevent this, ECOWAS must reclaim responsibility for political and military management of the crisis with the unequivocal support of the AU and the UN," Said Gilles Yabi, a policy research group's West Africa project director. "The most likely scenario is an armed conflict involving massive violence against civilians that could provoke unilateral military intervention by neighbors," said Yabi.

ECOWAS was quickest to respond by suspending Ivory Coast from the regional Block and threatening the use force if Gbagbo didn’t step down but the threats went as quickly as they came. It now seems they have developed cold feet and may not be able to follow through on their threats and the involvement of the African Union hasn’t helped much. But the fact that the threats were delivered is a welcome break from the past and it shows that Africans are willing to stand by what is right and take charge for itself. 

The African Union should be decisive and support this as we are out of the era of external interventions from the UN and former colonial masters in African affairs. Ivory Coast provides an acid test for Africa and the AU to show what they can do for the African people, particularly in the face of popular revolts in Africa against tyrants in the continent.

 

"African solutions to African problems" is a phrase that has long been more of an aspiration than reality perpetuated by self serving leaders who do not wish to be accountable to their people and the International Community. Africa is home to plenty of sitting tyrants with no desire of external mediation when it comes to justice and rule of law. Elections have been disputed in many other countries and the AU does not seem to recognize the need for an urgent mechanism to ensure elections are free and fair and do not lead into conflict. The recent trend of power sharing and Unity Governments whenever elections are disputed has set a bad precedent in Africa and should never be encouraged to continue.

Despite earlier stances by the AU that there shall be no power sharing in Ivory Coast, its democratically elected leader extended an olive branch to the Incumbent, offering him a unity government perhaps frustrated by the lack of decisive action by the regional and international community. He described the offer as “the last chance for a peaceful and honorable resolution” to the crisis, Ouattara said.

In light of this, the African Union has said that this is not a power-sharing deal between Mr. Gbagbo and Mr. Ouattara. Mr. Ouattara is the president and has agreed to include members of Mr. Gbagbo's party in his cabinet. Youssoufou Bamba, the Ivory Coast ambassador to the United Nations, added that Mr. Gbagbo's followers could be absorbed into a "wider composite cabinet". Mr. Gbagbo's camp however said the incumbent's victory was "non-negotiable". The country remains in a catch 22 situation.

“The only way forward to a peaceful Cote d’Ivoire lies in respecting the will of Ivorians as expressed in the outcome of the November elections which were certified as free and fair by the United Nations and other independent organizations,” said Raila Odinga, the African Union’s envoy in the conflict. 

The responsibility to protect principle, adopted by the UN general assembly in 2005 requires that the International community must intervene to protect and promote the rights of citizens in countries where the state is unwilling to do so. The Bombardment of Libya by foreign forces is a reminder to the AU that it cannot sit and watch as its people suffers under despots who are out to exploit and rule with clenched fists.

“Challenges and prospects of peace and security in the region’.

In his acceptance speech of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993, Nelson Mandela avowed that “"We speak here of the challenge of the dichotomies of war and peace, violence and non-violence, racism and human dignity, oppression and repression and liberty and human rights, poverty and freedom from want.” These words holds true of IGADs decisiveness and commitment to eternal peace in the horn of Africa. 

At the Initiative of the African Union (AU), and within the framework of the year of peace and security in Africa, IGAD organized a peace conference dubbed “Challenges and prospects of peace and security in the region’. The reflection session aimed at giving “further drive to efforts to bring an end the scourge of armed conflicts and political crises in the region”.

In attendance were IGAD members; Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda. Scholars from the region, Representative of the African Union, Conflict Early Warning and Response Unit (CEWERU) and heads of member countries, IGAD’s specialized offices and staff of IGAD secretariat were equally not left out. 

The conference adopted the theme “make peace happen in Africa” motivated by the initiatives to make peace happen in Africa in general, and peace and stability in the IGAD region precisely. This was in furtherance of the Tripoli declaration of 31^st August 2009, when the year 2010 was declared the African year of peace made it relevant and timely and further energized the participants.

IGAD Executive secretary, Eng. Mahboub Maalim in his opening statement noted, “This workshop must underscore the need for continued discussions and consultations on how to best tackle the challenges facing peace and security among the states in the IGAD region.” Eng. Maalim adduced that, “the continued fragility of many African states especially within the horn of Africa, suggest that we may continue to witness violent conflicts and severe political upheavals, therefore peace and security remain top of the agenda of African prosperity”.

Indeed, the challenges related to governance and the immediate threats posed by terrorism, drug trafficking, illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons, piracy and other associated scourges and the long term challenges arising from these threats and enduring poverty and instability in the region were discussed at length. In perspective, weaker governments are vulnerable to a proliferation of crimes of international and municipal concern hence a critical component of addressing the greater whole of modern day quandaries.

To the extent that a multi-dimensional approach is necessary cannot be gainsaid. Deliberations bordered on the roles that can be played by women, the CSOs, and the media in terms of conflict prevention and resolution and peace building. Affirmatively, neighboring nations that have made head way in mitigating conflicts offer valuable lessons for present and future mechanisms. Inordinately past experiences such as the peace process in Somalia and Sudan, the importance of harnessing indigenous knowledge for conflict prevention and resolution and also institutionalizing mediation efforts in the implementation of the African peace and security threats in the region are feasible. 

Realistically, the continuity and sustainability of this process holds key to realizing tangible gains over time. “In fact, such events can create a common understanding of peace and security issues in the region bearing in mind the achievement of lasting peace on the continent requires closer coordination and consultation at all levels”, Mahboub noted. It was therefore apparent that IGAD considers creating regular forums of the stakeholders that includes the policy makers, the academia, CSOs, Media, practitioners in the area of peace and security, and experienced individuals in mediation efforts in the region for further reflections and exchange of views on common concerns.

Such a consultative forum raised the bar in finding solutions on tackling conflicts. The recommendations reminded delegates of the inherent need and capacity to solve these issues locally. First, IGAD needs to establish a Mediation support Unit and roster of mediators and make necessary efforts to professionalize mediation in the IGAD region. Here, the culture and practice of appointing former heads of state as mediators without considering their capacity to effectively mediate in certain circumstances and warned was acknowledged as impassive. Moreover, this could negatively influence the outcome of mediation efforts.

Secondly, the debate of the Nile water came to the fore. Noting the concern, the anxiety caused by the disagreements over the use of the Nile water and the possibility of escalation of hostilities to the point of armed conflict, the delegates urged IGAD to work together with the Nile Basin Initiative in order to deal with conflicts arising from the shared resource.

Thirdly, firmness and consistency in guaranteeing peace in Somalia and Sudan are valuable assets to IGAD. Delegates urged IGAD to remain engaged in the peace processes in Sudan and Somalia and “take stock of the peace processes particularly in Somalia the view of drawing lessons from repeated efforts and challenges in order to inform existing processes with renewed vigor”.

Fourthly, partnerships between IGAD and AU were discussed as favorable in harmonizing activities related to peace and security. It was therefore central that steps up its efforts to have Eritrea back to the institution. This is seen as the bridging gap to peace in the larger horn of Africa and the world at large.

Fifthly, there was need for IGAD to further reflect on collaborative mechanisms to promote regional approaches for conflict prevention and resolution as they share a common security concern. Accordingly, Ms. Barbara Among, a media expert from Uganda, accentuates that “the best collaborative measures be between the med and local communities. More tangibly, community radio can play a key role in this endeavor. It can easily be used to spread the message of peace guided by the fact that it is controlled by community needs.” It is imperative to ensure these stations are not manipulated to promote negative ethnicity as the case of Kenya in early 2008.

Kenya’s Internal Security Assistant Minister, Hon. Orwa Ojode closed the workshop where he thanked IGAD for choosing Kenya to host the conference and pledged continued support from the government of Kenya in all efforts to enhance peace and security in the region. Ojode appreciated that IGAD has “a pool of mediators and come in handy to compliment peace and security efforts in the region.” It is therefore imperative to commit to the IGAD security strategy 2010-213 with special focus on Sudan and Somalia.